A non-homogeneous Poisson process predictive model for automobile warranty claims

نویسنده

  • Karl D. Majeske
چکیده

Automobile warranties and thus lifetimes are characterized in the two-dimensional space of time and mileage. This paper presents a non-homogenous Poisson Process (NHPP) predictive model for automobile warranty claims consisting of two components: a population size function and a failure or warranty claim rate. The population size function tracks the population in the time domain and accounts for mileage by removing vehicles from the population when they exceed the warranty mileage limitation. The model uses the intensity function of a NHPP – the instantaneous probability of failure to model the occurrence of warranty claims. The approach was developed to support automobile manufacturers’ process of using claims observed during the early portion (first seven months) of vehicle life to predict claims for the remainder of coverage, typically between three and five years. This paper uses manufacturer provided warranty data from a luxury car to demonstrate the NHPP model by predicting claims for three vehicle subsystems. Warranty predictions are then compared with the actual observed values.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Faculty Research A Mixture Model for Automobile Warranty Data

This paper proposes a general mixture model framework for automobile warranty data that includes parameters for product field performance, the manufacturing and assembly process, and dealer preparation process. The model fits warranty claims as a mixture of manufacturing or assembly defects (quality problems) and usage related failures (reliability problems). The model also estimates the fracti...

متن کامل

Forecasting warranty claims for recently launched products

Forecasting warranty claims for recently launched products that have short histories of claim records is vitally important for manufacturers in preparing their fiscal plans. Since the amount of historical claim data for such products is not large enough, developing forecasting models with good performance has been a difficult problem. The objective of this paper is to develop an algorithm for f...

متن کامل

Warranty claim forecasting based on

5 Warranty claims reported in recent months might carry more up-to-date information than 6 those reported in earlier months. Using weighted maximum likelihood estimation for esti7 mating model parameters might therefore lead to better performance of warranty forecast8 ing models than maximum likelihood estimation. This paper examines this issue and also 9 presents comparison of the forecasting ...

متن کامل

Warranty Costs: An Age-Dependent Failure/Repair Model

An age-dependent repair model is proposed. The notion of the “age” of the product and the degree of repair are used to define the virtual age of the product. The virtual failure rate function and the virtual hazard function related to the lifetime of the product are discussed. Under a non-homogeneous Poisson process scenario the expected warranty costs for repairable products associated with li...

متن کامل

Choosing between Higher Moment Maximum Entropy Models and Its Application to Homogeneous Point Processes with Random Effects

In the Bayesian framework, the usual choice of prior in the prediction of homogeneous Poisson processes with random effects is the gamma one. Here, we propose the use of higher order maximum entropy priors. Their advantage is illustrated in a simulation study and the choice of the best order is established by two goodness-of-fit criteria: Kullback–Leibler divergence and a discrepancy measure. T...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Rel. Eng. & Sys. Safety

دوره 92  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2007